alerte aurore boreale

[spoutnicko 567]

alerte à l'aurore boréale pour cette nuit et demain soir

suite à la forte eruption de ce matin, une cme est en route vers la terre. selon les images de soho elle est très rapide et devrait arriver en deuxième partie de nuit.

malheureusement l'horaire de maximum devrait arriver demain dans la journée a cause de la mauvaise orientation de l'imf (champ magnetique interplanétaire)

a suivre donc, si la meteo le permet...

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Updated: 06:15 UTC on 13 December 2006
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com

VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY
MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region 930
was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to produce
periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm activity
on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense phase
of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is
currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December).
The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises sometime after
local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur prior to
and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon.

This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on
15 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For
updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Warning **

[michou 0]

Merci
super infos

Salut michou

[Strock Pierre 228]

Oui c'est sympa les alertes. Merci
Pierre
Montignt-le-Bretonneux

[Quentin Vauthier 0]

UP

[Chris74 55]

up aussi, pour aujourd'hui 55 % de chance !
http://www.spaceweather.com/

A vos boitiers !

a+

Chris74 http://www.astrosurf.com/hautesavoie/

[tégéa 15]

Quelles sont les chances de pouvoir observer quelque-chose depuis la france ?
Si ces chances sont significatives, dans quelle direction et quand doit-on regarder ?

[Invité chinois02]

logiquement direction nord!
mais chez moi, il y en a à chaque nuit, des aurores oranges (

[Matthieusibon 0]

Franchement...ca pete pas tant que ca : on etait à 10 il y a 2 jours (à 10++ soit 2 niveaux au dessus on en voyant depuis la France comme ca a souvent été le cas ces dernieres années)
Mais en ce moment...c'est calme :
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html

Et le niveau n'est qu'à 5 sur l'echelle de la NOAA :

[Chris74 55]

up on vient d'atteindre les 10
a+

Chris http://www.astrosurf.com/hautesavoie/

[biquet 0]

Ou alors je ne comprends rien, ou alors c'est raté : http://www.spacew.com/www/aurora.php

Les aurores sont visibles au nord des USA... comme d'hab